Here you’ll find round by round playoff probabilities of each round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Two different models were used to generate our predictions:

Model 1 (M1): Generated via our ‘Markov chain’ probabilities found here
Model 2 (M2): Generated via full-game home and away win rates found here

It should be noted that our two models only contain home and away win / loss percentages (M2) or team rates of trailing, leading, or being tied with an opponent at the end of each period (M1). We realize that limiting our models to this information will result in some interesting predictions, but it’s the Stanley Cup playoffs and anything can happen! We are currently in the process of deriving more comprehensive models that incorporate more informative information for each team, e.g., shot quality, possession times, expected goals, etc.

Round 1

Table 1. 2019 Playoff Probabilities (Round 1): Away = away team; Home = home team; PrbWinM1 = win probabilities (%) for home and away teams as predicted by Model 1; PrbWinM2 = win probabilities (%) for home and away teams using Model 2

Table 2. 2019 Round 1 Series Probabilities: M1 = probability (%) of advancing to Round 2 of Stanley Cup Playoffs as predicted by Model 1; M2 = probability (%) of advancing to Round 2 of Stanley Cup as predicted by Model 2.

Round 2

Table 3. 2019 Playoff Probabilities (Round 2): Away = away team; Home = home team; PrbWinM1 = win probabilities (%) for home and away teams as predicted by Model 1; PrbWinM2 = win probabilities (%) for home and away teams using Model 2

Table 4. 2019 Round 2 Series Probabilities: M1 = probability (%) of advancing to Round 3 of Stanley Cup Playoffs as predicted by Model 1; M2 = probability (%) of advancing to Round 3 of Stanley Cup as predicted by Model 2.

Round 3

Table 5. 2019 Playoff Probabilities (Round 3): Away = away team; Home = home team; PrbWinM1 = win probabilities (%) for home and away teams as predicted by Model 1; PrbWinM2 = win probabilities (%) for home and away teams using Model 2

Table 6. 2019 Round 3 Series Probabilities: M1 = probability (%) of advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals as predicted by Model 1; M2 = probability (%) of advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals as predicted by Model 2.