Round 1

Last Updated: 2019-04-25

Table 1 provides a ranking summary for each of the 16 teams in round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Further details about rankings can be found in the captions of each table. Only data from round 1 go into the creation of these team rankings Teams that advanced to round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs have white backgrounds, while teams that were eliminated from round 1 have grey backgrounds.

Why did some of the better ranked teams not advance to round 2? Consider these statements:
  • our ranking model is not perfect, no models are perfect
  • our model weights all man-power and score differential situations equally
  • the ranking table is not organized in a manner that depicts who played who. For instance, CBJ played TBL and accoring to our rankings, CBJ outplayed TBL. VGK played SJS. According to our rankings, VGK performed better than SJS in all 3 of our ranking categories. but SJS advanced to round 2 and VGK did not. Keep this in mind for the next bullet points
  • officiating styles are different in the playoffs than during the regular season. A single penalty could change the entire outcome of the game, e.g., game 7 between VGK and SJS; and
  • compared to all other professional sports, the outcomes of hockey games are less representative of true differences in skill between teams. In other words, the influence of luck is notable. For more info on luck in sports, check out Michael Mauboussin’s book, The Success Equation.

Table 1. 2019 Stanley Cup Team Rankings (Round 1): Overall team ranking (rankICE). This is calculated as a function of each team’s offensive ranking (rankOff), defensive ranking (rankDef), and goalie ranking(s) (rankGltnd). Teams with white backgrounds advanced to round 2 of the playoffs, whereas teams with grey backgrounds were eliminated in round 1. Individual rankings can be investigated by exploring the tables further down the page

Table 2. 2019 Stanley Cup Team Offense Rankings (Round 1): rankOff = a team’s overall offensive ranking. This is calculated as a weighted function of Shot Quality Neutral Shots on Goal Per 60 Minutes (SQNS_P60), Expected Goals per 60 minutes (of shots and goals; EGA_P60), Expected Goals of missed shots per 60 minutes (EGM_P60), Expected Goals of blocked shots per 60 minutes (EGBA_P60), and Offensive Rebound Percentage (offRbd%). Other columns are: Number of Games Played (games), Shots (S), Missed Shots (M), Blocked Shots (B), Goals (G), Shot Quality (SQ), the ratio of Shots on Net to Shots at Net (SHOAG), the weighted ratio of Shots on Net to shots at Net (wSHOAG), the ratio of blocked shots to shots at net (BAG), the ratio of missed shots to shots at net (MAG), Possession Time (possTime), Number of Possessions (numPoss), Expected Goals (of shots on net and goals; EG), Expected Goals of Missed Shots (EGM), and Expected Goals of Blocked Shots (EGB)

Table 3. 2019 Stanley Cup Team Defense Rankings (Round 1): rankDef = a team’s overall defensive ranking. This is calculated as a weighted function of Shot Quality Neutral Shots Against (SQNSA_P60), Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (of shots and goals; EGA_P60), Expected Goals Against of missed shots per 60 minutes (EGMA_P60), Expected Goals Against of blocked shots per 60 minutes (EGBA_P60), and Defensive Rebound Percentage (defRbd%). Other columns are: Number of Games Played (games), Shots Aainst (SA), Missed Shots Against (MA), Blocked Shots Against (BA), Goals Against (GA), Shot quality against (SQA), the ratio of Shots on Net against to Shots at Net Against (SHOAGA), the weighted ratio of shots on net against to shots at Net Against (wSHOAGA), the ratio of blocked shots against to shots at net against (BAGA), the ratio of missed shots against to shots at net against (MAGA),Expected Goals Against (of shots on net and goals; EGA), Expected Goals of Missed Shots Against (EGMA), and Expected Goals of Blocked Shots Against (EGBA)

Table 4. 2019 Stanley Cup Team Goalie Rankings (Round 1): rankGltnd = a goaltender’s overall ranking. This is calculated as a weighted function of Shot Quality Neutral Save Percentage (SQNSv%), Expected Goals Against (of shots and goals; EGA), Goals Against (GA), and Cough up Percentage (cgh%). Other columns defined as: Number of Games Played (games), Shots Against (SA), Saves (Sv), Shot quality against (SQA) and Save Percentage (Sv%)