Probabilities

LAST UPDATED: 2020-07-16

Notes about data aggregation

• Figures 1 and 2 do not explicitly partition win or loss types. As such:
  • Wins = regulation, overtime, and shootout wins
  • Losses = regulation, overtime, and shootout losses.
• Figure 3 partitions win/loss types.

How do I interpret These Figures?

League-wide Win/Loss Distributions

_{Figure 1 Distribution of wins/losses for all NHL teams when playing away and home. League-wide, the home team win rate is roughly 53%. The away team’s win rate is ~47%.}

Figure 2 shows a breakdown of wins and losses of each team. The vertical lines represent the league-wide averages from Figure 1. For aesthetics, losses are shown as negative values and wins as positive values.

Away/Home Probabilities (w/o OT indication)

_{Fig 2: Win/loss splits for all NHL teams. Percentages are displayed relative to each facet, i.e., away percentages sum to -100% and home percentages to 100%. League averages are shown via the vertical lines. Wins comprsise regulation, overtime, and shootout wins. The same logic applies for losses.}

Figure 3 shows a breakdown of partitioned, i.e., regulation and overtime/shootout wins and losses.

Away/Home Probabilities (w/ OT indication)

_{Fig 3: Win/loss splits for all NHL teams. Percentages are displayed relative to each facet, i.e., away percentages sum to -100% and home percentages to 100%. League averages are shown via the vertical lines.}